Up, so far: national petrol is 217.7 c/L, 9.9 c/L higher than a week ago, and wholesale petrol rose 11.7 c/L over the same week to 215.7 c/L. The direction that usually leads pump prices by one to two weeks is withheld today: 6 of the 10 consecutive trading days the rule needs are on file since the wholesale feed resumed, and it can return about 21 September 2026.
One rule, published, applied to one series. It withholds rather than guesses.
No wholesale direction: 6 consecutive trading days of terminal gate prices are on file since 8 September 2026 and the rule needs 10; a direction can return about 21 September 2026 if every trading day publishes. The rule compares the mean of the latest 5 trading days of AIP terminal gate petrol with the 5 before, and calls nothing until both weeks exist.
In plain words: take the mean terminal gate price over the latest 5 trading days and the mean over the 5 before that; if the newer mean is more than 2 per cent above the older one the direction is rising, more than 2 per cent below it easing, and otherwise steady. Two gates sit in front of the arithmetic: the newest reading must be no more than 4 days old, and the 10 readings must sit inside two consecutive trading weeks. The excise steps of 1 July and 3 August are subtracted out first, so a tax change cannot read as a market move. Brent crude is not an input; it was removed on 11 September 2026 after it produced a wrong call from a stale window.
The full method, with the numbers behind each gate, is on the methodology page; the same verdict is the second section of the homepage.
The observed change, by jurisdiction: each median against its own reading seven days earlier.
| Jurisdiction | Unleaded c/L | vs week ago | Diesel c/L | vs week ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Capital Territory | 228.4 | +13.0 c/L | 279.9 | +8.5 c/L |
| New South Wales | 220.6 | +12.0 c/L | 265.3 | +9.7 c/L |
| Northern Territory | 227.9 | +11.7 c/L | 280.0 | +5.1 c/L |
| Tasmania | 222.9 | +11.0 c/L | 264.9 | +8.9 c/L |
| Queensland | 219.9 | +10.6 c/L | 265.4 | +9.0 c/L |
| Western Australia | 212.6 | +9.6 c/L | 258.9 | +7.7 c/L |
| South Australia | 218.2 | +9.5 c/L | 265.9 | +10.9 c/L |
| Victoria | 212.8 | +7.7 c/L | 262.7 | +7.6 c/L |
Ranked by the size of the unleaded move. Every jurisdiction rose. The widest move was Australian Capital Territory at +13.0 c/L and the narrowest Victoria at +7.7 c/L.
The wholesale price for each capital AIP publishes, and its move on the week: the leading edge the verdict reads.
| Capital | Terminal gate c/L | vs week ago | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane | 217.1 | +12.0 c/L | 15 September 2026 |
| Sydney | 216.8 | +12.0 c/L | 15 September 2026 |
| Melbourne | 214.2 | +11.6 c/L | 15 September 2026 |
| Adelaide | 214.1 | +11.3 c/L | 15 September 2026 |
| Hobart | 218.6 | +11.0 c/L | 15 September 2026 |
| Darwin | 222.5 | +11.0 c/L | 15 September 2026 |
| Perth | 213.3 | +10.8 c/L | 15 September 2026 |
Ranked by the size of the move. The largest was Brisbane at +12.0 c/L, the smallest Perth at +10.8 c/L. Each state page carries its own capital's direction from the same rule.
A servo sells what it bought, and it bought at last week's terminal gate price.
A site reprices when it restocks, and a tank of fuel bought at the terminal takes days to sell through, so a terminal gate move reaches the boards over the following one to two weeks rather than on the day. That is why the verdict reads wholesale rather than pump prices: pump prices tell you what has already happened, the terminal gate price tells you what is in the tanks now. Today the national pump median (217.7 c/L) sits above the terminal gate price (215.7 c/L) by the retailer's costs and margin. Crude is further back in the chain again: Brent is US$109.51 on 9 September 2026, up 12.2 per cent on the week, and it reaches the terminal gate through the Singapore refined-product market over several weeks more.
The rule is not broken; the series is short, and the calendar says when it stops being short.
The AIP feed stopped on 15 August 2026 and resumed on 8 September 2026; the days between are a permanent gap, so the rule cannot compare a week after the gap with a week before it. It has 6 consecutive trading days on file and needs 10, so the earliest a direction can be called is about 21 September 2026, assuming AIP publishes every trading day. Until then the observed moves in sections 02 and 03 are the evidence, and they are not a forecast.
Whether there is a cycle to time in your city, and today's median for each capital, are on the fill-up page.
Source: AIP terminal gate prices; state government fuel price feeds; EIA Brent spotUpdated 15 September 2026Verdict rule: latest 5 trading days against the 5 before, 2 per cent thresholdHow we measure this
The verdict and the moves refresh with the twice-daily price run; edits to the page's wording and structure are dated here.
| Date | Change |
|---|---|
| 15 September 2026 | Page published: the wholesale verdict and its rule, this week's pump and terminal gate moves by jurisdiction and capital, and when a direction returns while the rule withholds. |
A mistaken direction or figure on this page is corrected in the open, under the corrections policy.