Why the crisis is happening, how secure our reserves are, and where the supply chain is stressed.
Australia is holding about 39 days of fuel cover, a consumption-weighted average of the official per-fuel figures below. On our supply health index, supply is tight, worsening this week.
Days of cover for petrol, diesel, and jet fuel against MSO baselines
National days of confirmed cover for each fuel, shown against the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO), the per-importer holding rule each fuel entity must meet. The MSO is a reference line, not a national floor: national cover and the per-importer obligation are different measures. Source data as of July 2026.
Petrol: 43 days of cover, 16 days above the 27-day importer MSO obligation, level on the week. Diesel: 39 days of cover, 7 days above the 32-day importer MSO obligation, up 2.6% on the week. Jet fuel: 34 days of cover, 7 days above the 27-day importer MSO obligation, up 6.3% on the week.
Watch: jet fuel cover rose 6.3% on the week, still 7 days above the importer MSO obligation.
The MSO is a per-importer holding obligation, not a national floor, and is currently under temporary relief to 30 September 2026. How cover and the MSO compare.
Total stocks including in-transit: 9,562 ML. How days of cover are calculated.
Source: DCCEEW Minimum Stockholding ObligationUpdated Weekly (Saturdays), data as of July 2026How we measure this
Composite 0 to 100 score, recalculated twice daily
Supply health 50 out of 100, in the Tight band, band 3 of 5 from Critical to Secure.
Down 1 from 51 last week.
Thresholds on the methodology pageThe index is 50 of 100 now, down 6 points over the recent window.
Scale 40 to 70 of 100, not from zero.
Supply health index over the last 15 observations. The chart is drawn on a 40 to 70 of 100 scale, not from zero. Current value 50, down 6 points from 56 at the start of the window.Source: Composite (6 feeds)Updated 2 August 2026How we measure this
The four maritime chokepoints most relevant to Australian fuel supply
The four maritime chokepoints most relevant to Australian fuel supply. When one closes, flows reroute and freight costs climb.
The Strait of Hormuz is closed and has been since February. On the IMF PortWatch series, 23 July recorded about 10 transits a day against a normal baseline near 88, or roughly 11 per cent; 34 tankers were running dark and are excluded from that count, so true flow is somewhat higher than the measured figure. Commercial access is the harder constraint. Several war-risk insurers have withdrawn cover, hull war-risk cover is now reported at 7.5 to 10 per cent of vessel value against about 0.25 per cent before the war, and the major carriers are still routing via the Cape of Good Hope. The corridor cannot reopen on diplomacy alone, because deployed naval mines have to be cleared first: talks mediated by Oman stalled in late July and US strikes resumed on 29 July. The Red Sea is a second front rather than the workaround, with Suez traffic about 60 per cent below pre-crisis levels and Saudi Red Sea shipments suspended on 26 July after two tankers were hit. Malacca and the Indonesian straits are open, at elevated risk. The full Hormuz explainer lives on /methodology for journalists.
Source: Lloyd's List Intelligence, Reuters shipping (editorial assessment)Updated reviewed 31 July 2026How we measure this
Status for the two remaining refineries. Full operator profiles on /methodology
Australia's two remaining refineries, which combined cover roughly 23% of national demand.
The fluid catalytic cracking unit turnaround was deferred from early June to the start of August 2026 to maximise output during the supply crunch, adding about 300 million litres of domestic production.
The fluid catalytic cracking unit turnaround was deferred from early June to the start of August 2026 to maximise output during the supply crunch, adding about 300 million litres of domestic production. That turnaround is now due within weeks.
Viva Energy has completed the residue catalytic cracking unit restart, lifting the refinery above 90 per cent of capacity (reported ~23 June 2026) after the 15 April 2026 fire.
Viva Energy has completed the residue catalytic cracking unit restart, lifting the refinery above 90 per cent of capacity (reported ~23 June 2026) after the 15 April 2026 fire. The Alkylation unit remains offline pending assessment through 2027, limiting LPG-to-gasoline conversion and margins.
Source: Ampol and Viva Energy ASX reporting; Viva Energy June 2026 update confirming the RCCU restart and above-90-per-cent capacity, with the Alkylation unit offline through 2027 and Viva expecting to hold above 90 per cent across that period. Re-verified 21 July 2026 against Viva Energy and Ampol reporting plus Argus and QCIntel coverage of the Lytton deferral: both statuses unchanged, with the Lytton detail sharpened to name the fluid catalytic cracking unit turnaround and flag that its deferred start of August 2026 date is now imminent. (editorial assessment)Updated reviewed 21 July 2026How we measure this
Full operator profiles live on /methodology.
One-line status for the policy settings behind the supply picture
Be the first to know when reserves drop or supply conditions change. Emails land at 7 am AEDT with a one-line summary of what shifted overnight.